The following data was updated as of 3/27/20 using data released by John Hopkins University today. The data analyzes Counties that have reported 3 or more fatalities and is sorted by the average daily positive Coronavirus test growth rate since 3/23/20. These are the top emerging hot spots that are not necessarily the largest cities experiencing the most fatalities but need resources and attention paid to constrain the outbreak.
Note: Growth rates will slow down before reaching the population count. E.g. Marion Indiana won’t continue at a 245% daily growth rate and will slow down as saturation approaches.
| # | County | Population | 3/23 Confirmed | 3/27 Confirmed | Avg. Daily Growth Rate | Deaths | Death Rate | Penetration Rate | Estimated Confirmed Positive One Week Out |
| 1 | IN – Marion | 964,582 | 82 | 484 | 245% | 3 | 0.000311% | 0.05% | 2,822,627 |
| 2 | WA – Clark | 488,241 | 13 | 76 | 242% | 3 | 0.000614% | 0.02% | 418,533 |
| 3 | WA – Benton | 204,390 | 9 | 42 | 183% | 3 | 0.001468% | 0.02% | 61,565 |
| 4 | NV – Clark | 2,266,715 | 126 | 443 | 126% | 4 | 0.000176% | 0.02% | 132,552 |
| 5 | CA – Riverside | 2,470,546 | 46 | 149 | 112% | 6 | 0.000243% | 0.01% | 28,636 |
| 6 | NJ – Essex | 798,975 | 273 | 826 | 101% | 4 | 0.000501% | 0.10% | 110,564 |
| 7 | GA – Dougherty | 87,956 | 64 | 193 | 101% | 6 | 0.006822% | 0.22% | 25,387 |
| 8 | MI – Wayne | 1,749,343 | 638 | 1,810 | 92% | 8 | 0.000457% | 0.10% | 173,143 |
| 9 | CT – Fairfield | 943,332 | 270 | 752 | 89% | 6 | 0.000636% | 0.08% | 65,406 |
| 10 | CA – Los Angeles | 10,039,107 | 536 | 1,465 | 87% | 7 | 0.000070% | 0.01% | 115,665 |
| 11 | NJ – Monmouth | 618,795 | 238 | 634 | 83% | 3 | 0.000485% | 0.10% | 43,899 |
| 12 | MI – Oakland | 1,257,584 | 329 | 824 | 75% | 4 | 0.000318% | 0.07% | 41,798 |
| 13 | NJ – Bergen | 932,202 | 609 | 1,505 | 74% | 6 | 0.000644% | 0.16% | 71,407 |
| 14 | IL – Cook | 5,150,233 | 922 | 2,239 | 71% | 9 | 0.000175% | 0.04% | 97,387 |
| 15 | TX – Dallas | 2,635,516 | 155 | 367 | 68% | 4 | 0.000152% | 0.01% | 14,087 |
| 16 | FL – Broward | 1,952,778 | 263 | 614 | 67% | 3 | 0.000154% | 0.03% | 21,992 |
| 17 | NY – Suffolk | 1,476,601 | 1,458 | 3,385 | 66% | 13 | 0.000880% | 0.23% | 117,991 |
| 18 | FL – Palm Beach | 1,496,770 | 89 | 194 | 59% | 3 | 0.000200% | 0.01% | 4,982 |
| 19 | LA – Jefferson | 432,493 | 252 | 548 | 59% | 5 | 0.001156% | 0.13% | 13,912 |
| 20 | NY – New York City | 18,804,000 | 12,305 | 25,573 | 54% | 99 | 0.000526% | 0.14% | 523,251 |
| 21 | LA – Orleans | 390,144 | 567 | 1,170 | 53% | 20 | 0.005126% | 0.30% | 23,147 |
| 22 | WI – Milwaukee | 945,726 | 204 | 411 | 51% | 3 | 0.000317% | 0.04% | 7,267 |
| 23 | CO – El Paso | 720,403 | 69 | 137 | 49% | 3 | 0.000416% | 0.02% | 2,263 |
| 24 | NY – Nassau | 1,356,924 | 2,442 | 4,657 | 45% | 4 | 0.000295% | 0.34% | 63,835 |
| 25 | CA – Santa Clara | 1,927,852 | 302 | 574 | 45% | 10 | 0.000519% | 0.03% | 7,748 |
| 26 | CA – Sacramento | 1,552,058 | 88 | 164 | 43% | 4 | 0.000258% | 0.01% | 2,023 |
| 27 | WA – Snohomish | 822,083 | 519 | 912 | 38% | 11 | 0.001338% | 0.11% | 8,632 |
| 28 | WA – King | 2,252,782 | 1,170 | 1,577 | 17% | 87 | 0.003862% | 0.07% | 4,845 |